Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102024 240819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  15.4  22.1  21.9  35.9  48.1  48.1  48.1  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  33.0  16.0  23.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  23.9  23.9  23.9  F  F  F  F  F VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  49.0  39.0  49.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -12.0   2.0   1.0  16.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       20.9%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        9.4%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        8.7%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        8.7%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       16.8%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.66

 WP102024 240819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  15.4  22.1  21.9  35.9  48.1  48.1  48.1  N  U  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -12.0   2.0   1.0  16.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%