Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102024 240820 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 125.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 20.2 22.8 29.7 32.4 41.5 61.0 66.9 F N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 11.0 21.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 50.0 41.9 23.9 13.1 F F F N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 49.0 27.0 44.0 49.0 42.0 76.0 54.0 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 72.0 74.0 72.0 76.0 81.0 80.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 21.0 24.0 19.0 33.0 38.0 51.0 94.0 N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 2.9% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 4.9% 19.4% 12.1% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 8.9% 5.4% 35kt / 24h 1.7% 8.2% 4.9% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 8.2% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 8.6% 4.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP102024 240820 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 125.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 20.2 22.8 29.7 32.4 41.5 61.0 66.9 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 72.0 74.0 72.0 76.0 81.0 80.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 21.0 24.0 19.0 33.0 38.0 51.0 94.0 N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%