Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102024 240820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.1  21.0  21.7  32.4  50.0  65.1  69.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  23.0  12.0  36.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 132.0 104.8  70.5  27.0  30.1  16.8  F  F  F  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  20.0  42.0  60.0  23.0  46.0  82.0  57.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  81.0  79.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   4.0   9.0  34.0  45.0  55.0  96.0  U  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP102024 240820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.1  21.0  21.7  32.4  50.0  65.1  69.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  81.0  79.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   4.0   9.0  34.0  45.0  55.0  96.0  F  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%