Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102024 240820 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 24.2 29.1 27.2 31.6 43.3 48.1 61.6 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 13.0 37.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 134.3 116.5 94.3 62.7 45.4 28.9 17.5 F F N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 53.0 29.0 24.0 12.0 28.0 -12.0 43.0 U N N U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 70.0 70.0 72.0 79.0 77.0 77.0 70.0 N N N N F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 27.0 24.0 53.0 31.0 49.0 6.0 -23.0 N VU VU VU VU VU N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.7% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.9% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.8% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.26 WP102024 240820 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 24.2 29.1 27.2 31.6 43.3 48.1 61.6 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 70.0 70.0 72.0 79.0 77.0 77.0 70.0 N N N N U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 27.0 24.0 53.0 31.0 49.0 6.0 -23.0 N VF VF VF VF VF N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 2.1% 0.0% 1.1%