Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  27.4  22.4  22.0  35.1  30.0  35.4  31.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  79.0  75.0  72.0  75.0  64.0  43.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  67.0  90.0  55.0  84.0  35.0  28.0  57.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   7.0   4.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.3%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       32.9%       23.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%       14.9%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       12.9%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       12.9%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       39.5%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       21.8%       17.2%       19.5%
 70kt / 48h       16.9%       12.9%       14.9%
 65kt / 72h       34.4%       23.4%       28.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 WP112024 240821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  27.4  22.4  22.0  35.1  30.0  35.4  31.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   7.0   4.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%