Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  19.9  20.5  29.0  32.0  35.5  35.6  32.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  77.0  60.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  42.0  52.0  78.0  59.0  38.0  30.0  45.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   6.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        7.7%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.7%       45.0%       33.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       25.2%       18.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       24.0%       14.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       23.6%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       50.4%       31.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.8%       13.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       20.1%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.2%       16.2%       12.7%
 65kt / 72h       21.9%       23.8%       22.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP112024 240821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  19.9  20.5  29.0  32.0  35.5  35.6  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   6.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%