Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    141.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.4  27.4  31.5  28.1  32.8  28.7  15.3  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  79.0  75.0  72.0  64.0  54.0  27.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  46.0  74.0  91.0  37.0  33.0  26.0  21.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%       13.3%       12.0%
 25kt / 24h       33.3%       51.7%       42.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.9%       33.2%       25.6%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       33.2%       22.0%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       31.9%       19.5%
 45kt / 36h       20.9%       52.0%       36.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.8%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       22.1%       21.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.7%       14.1%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.9%       25.3%       22.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP112024 240822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    141.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.4  27.4  31.5  28.1  32.8  28.7  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%