Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  30.5  34.3  30.4  33.5  35.8  34.9  28.9  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  84.0  77.0  72.0  56.0  39.0  62.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  85.0  87.0  94.0  19.0  59.0   8.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.9%       11.6%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       33.6%       47.9%       40.7%
 30kt / 24h       17.1%       28.5%       22.8%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       28.4%       19.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       27.4%       16.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       43.9%       30.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.6%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       16.3%       14.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       10.0%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h       15.2%       15.8%       15.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP112024 240822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  30.5  34.3  30.4  33.5  35.8  34.9  28.9  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%