Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.4  27.1  29.8  34.7  35.0  28.7  29.1  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  78.0  70.0  64.0  47.0  45.0  65.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 103.0  45.0  69.0  15.0  42.0  30.0  20.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  -1.0   7.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        5.6%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       37.6%       32.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       20.9%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       20.9%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       19.6%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       25.9%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.4%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%       11.8%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        4.6%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%        9.1%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP112024 240822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.4  27.1  29.8  34.7  35.0  28.7  29.1  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  -1.0   7.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%