Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    141.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  29.5  34.9  33.8  29.6  24.5  23.5  13.4  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  59.0  52.0  45.0  38.0  59.0  33.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  53.0  36.0  19.0  18.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  58.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0  17.0   6.0  10.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        7.1%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       23.5%       30.1%       26.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.1%       17.1%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       17.1%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%       16.5%       10.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       19.4%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%       10.7%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        3.3%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%        8.4%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP112024 240823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    141.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  29.5  34.9  33.8  29.6  24.5  23.5  13.4  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  58.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0  17.0   6.0  10.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%