Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  26.2  23.6  20.5  13.1  11.4  17.5  21.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  46.0  38.0  39.0  64.0  40.0  31.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  85.0  67.0  20.0  53.0  20.0  43.0  18.0  N  F  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0   7.0  10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.0%        9.2%       14.1%
 25kt / 24h       33.2%       38.2%       35.7%
 30kt / 24h       25.4%       27.5%       26.4%
 35kt / 24h       20.7%       27.5%       24.1%
 40kt / 24h       15.7%       27.5%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       28.6%       25.8%       27.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.6%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       23.5%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        6.7%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.1%       11.4%       14.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP112024 240823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  26.2  23.6  20.5  13.1  11.4  17.5  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0   7.0  10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%