Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  27.9  25.3  20.4  18.3  15.8  19.3  24.3  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  35.0  39.0  53.0  36.0  50.0  54.0  66.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  54.0  -2.0  42.0 -31.0  11.0 -24.0  42.0  N  N  U  N VU  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  13.0  13.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%        5.3%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.7%       27.9%       23.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%       18.9%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       18.9%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       18.5%       13.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.0%       14.5%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%       12.0%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%        5.7%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP112024 240824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  27.9  25.3  20.4  18.3  15.8  19.3  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  13.0  13.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%