Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240824 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 141.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 26.4 23.2 26.7 15.8 12.8 19.3 17.2 N N N N F F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 40.0 54.0 38.0 36.0 62.0 62.0 80.0 U N N U U N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 15.0 18.0 37.0 -45.0 58.0 27.0 41.0 N U U N VU N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 63.0 61.0 59.0 51.0 52.0 55.0 59.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 9.0 13.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 -5.0 3.0 U U U N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.1% 7.2% 9.6% 25kt / 24h 21.7% 31.6% 26.7% 30kt / 24h 15.7% 22.9% 19.3% 35kt / 24h 13.4% 22.9% 18.2% 40kt / 24h 8.1% 22.2% 15.1% 45kt / 36h 13.5% 16.5% 15.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.3% 3.1% 55kt / 48h 9.1% 15.5% 12.3% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 3.3% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 12.9% 8.7% 10.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP112024 240824 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 141.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 26.4 23.2 26.7 15.8 12.8 19.3 17.2 N N N N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 63.0 61.0 59.0 51.0 52.0 55.0 59.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 9.0 13.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 -5.0 3.0 F F F N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%