Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240824 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 139.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 20.4 16.7 12.5 15.4 15.6 12.3 29.1 N N F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 36.0 36.0 50.0 69.0 80.0 72.0 41.0 N U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 53.0 10.0 -32.0 96.0 21.0 46.0 91.0 N N U VU F U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 63.0 68.0 67.0 N N U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 7.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.3% 9.8% 10.1% 25kt / 24h 21.0% 40.4% 30.7% 30kt / 24h 17.4% 32.9% 25.1% 35kt / 24h 12.8% 32.9% 22.9% 40kt / 24h 9.9% 32.5% 21.2% 45kt / 36h 23.4% 24.2% 23.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.2% 5.1% 55kt / 48h 24.1% 26.7% 25.4% 70kt / 48h 8.3% 6.5% 7.4% 65kt / 72h 29.0% 13.2% 21.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.02 WP112024 240824 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 139.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 20.4 16.7 12.5 15.4 15.6 12.3 29.1 N N N U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 63.0 68.0 67.0 N N F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 7.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%