Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240825 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 138.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 18.4 12.6 18.2 13.4 16.9 17.3 41.0 N F F F F F F VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 33.0 43.0 59.0 73.0 58.0 60.0 54.0 U U N N N N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 10.0 -32.0 22.0 65.0 50.0 50.0 154.0 N U VU U N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 54.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 60.0 60.0 53.0 N U U U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -1.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 5.0 8.0 35.0 N N F N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.7% 10.9% 10.8% 25kt / 24h 23.4% 43.8% 33.6% 30kt / 24h 18.4% 38.1% 28.2% 35kt / 24h 16.8% 38.1% 27.4% 40kt / 24h 7.8% 36.9% 22.4% 45kt / 36h 28.2% 29.9% 29.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 14.3% 7.2% 55kt / 48h 26.2% 30.7% 28.5% 70kt / 48h 9.1% 7.9% 8.5% 65kt / 72h 33.3% 11.7% 22.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.20 WP112024 240825 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 138.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 18.4 12.6 18.2 13.4 16.9 17.3 41.0 N N U N U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 54.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 60.0 60.0 53.0 N F F F F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -1.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 5.0 8.0 35.0 N N U N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%