Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  15.0  24.8  19.9  20.3  17.1  26.4  46.8  N  F  N  N  N  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  44.0  67.0  73.0  86.0  55.0  34.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  12.0  16.0  17.0   9.0  47.0  63.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  61.0  57.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0  -5.0   2.0  15.0  46.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.8%       17.9%       19.4%
 25kt / 24h       34.3%       49.1%       41.7%
 30kt / 24h       30.7%       44.9%       37.8%
 35kt / 24h       30.7%       44.9%       37.8%
 40kt / 24h       13.0%       43.5%       28.3%
 45kt / 36h       28.4%       27.2%       27.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.7%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       23.8%       21.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        6.3%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.5%        5.8%        9.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.34

 WP112024 240825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  15.0  24.8  19.9  20.3  17.1  26.4  46.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  61.0  57.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0  -5.0   2.0  15.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%