Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  20.1  17.7  19.2  25.7  22.1  25.1  44.6  F  N  F  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  69.0  75.0  83.0  66.0  38.0  30.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -23.0  16.0 -18.0  18.0  16.0 101.0  68.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0 -10.0   4.0   9.0  35.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.8%       26.2%       37.5%
 25kt / 24h       47.8%       54.3%       51.1%
 30kt / 24h       47.8%       50.2%       49.0%
 35kt / 24h       47.8%       50.2%       49.0%
 40kt / 24h       35.8%       50.2%       43.0%
 45kt / 36h       35.9%       24.7%       30.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.5%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%       16.8%       15.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        4.1%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        3.1%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.42

 WP112024 240825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  20.1  17.7  19.2  25.7  22.1  25.1  44.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0 -10.0   4.0   9.0  35.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%