Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  16.1  19.2  24.0  18.1  25.7  25.2  30.3  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  70.0  75.0  80.0  69.0  54.0  16.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -40.0  -3.0  -2.0 -33.0  32.0  53.0  56.0  82.0 VU  U  U VU  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  59.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   9.0  13.0  10.0  F  N  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.4%       21.5%       25.5%
 25kt / 24h       35.9%       43.6%       39.7%
 30kt / 24h       35.9%       39.4%       37.6%
 35kt / 24h       35.9%       39.4%       37.6%
 40kt / 24h       15.5%       39.4%       27.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.7%       18.1%       23.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       14.6%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        2.7%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%        3.7%        7.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 WP112024 240825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  16.1  19.2  24.0  18.1  25.7  25.2  30.3  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  50.0  52.0  59.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   9.0  13.0  10.0  U  N  U  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%