Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    133.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  20.3  28.3  29.2  23.1  26.9  22.4  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  75.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  68.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0  -5.0  -1.0  18.0  15.0  94.0  53.0  67.0 VU  U  U  U  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  67.0  77.0  68.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0   4.0  10.0  10.0   5.0  F  N  F  F  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.6%        9.9%       14.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       19.3%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       13.2%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h       18.8%       13.2%       16.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%       13.2%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h       20.5%        6.5%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        4.3%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        0.8%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%        2.1%        4.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.44

 WP112024 240826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    133.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  20.3  28.3  29.2  23.1  26.9  22.4  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  67.0  77.0  68.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0   4.0  10.0  10.0   5.0  U  N  U  U  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%