Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  30.3  31.4  25.7  28.7  18.8  24.4  13.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  76.0  63.0  37.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  -4.0 -21.0  16.0  67.0  54.0  34.0  42.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -8.0   0.0   3.0   9.0  12.0   0.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.5%       11.0%       20.7%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       22.2%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h       21.5%       15.2%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h       20.8%       15.2%       18.0%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%       15.2%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       30.7%        9.8%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        5.1%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        2.7%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP112024 240826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  30.3  31.4  25.7  28.7  18.8  24.4  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -8.0   0.0   3.0   9.0  12.0   0.0  U  N  U  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%