Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  33.7  28.4  27.2  24.9  20.6  17.2  14.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  85.0  85.0  61.0  76.0  71.0  60.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   5.0  10.0  32.0  62.0   1.0  55.0  33.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   9.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.1%        5.4%       12.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.6%       13.0%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.6%        7.5%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%        7.5%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%        7.5%        8.4%
 45kt / 36h       27.7%        5.4%       16.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        2.5%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.42

 WP112024 240826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  33.7  28.4  27.2  24.9  20.6  17.2  14.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   9.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%