Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  27.6  25.0  27.3  20.9  25.6  12.8  17.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  84.0  81.0  78.0  69.0  48.0  31.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  37.0  23.0  29.0  17.0  56.0  35.0  19.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   7.0  17.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.3%        7.6%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       17.3%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       10.2%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       10.2%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h       12.3%       10.2%       11.2%
 45kt / 36h       39.9%        9.0%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        2.5%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.40

 WP112024 240826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  27.6  25.0  27.3  20.9  25.6  12.8  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   7.0  17.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%