Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  28.3  31.5  27.1  23.4  17.0  20.9  15.7  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  83.0  78.0  73.0  50.0  18.0  34.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  19.0  32.0  59.0  20.0  37.0  35.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  74.0  76.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   4.0   4.0  11.0   9.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.9%        7.4%       19.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       13.0%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.1%        7.2%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%        7.2%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%        7.1%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h       49.7%        8.8%       29.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.54

 WP112024 240827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  28.3  31.5  27.1  23.4  17.0  20.9  15.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  74.0  76.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   4.0   4.0  11.0   9.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%