Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  32.5  28.6  21.1  24.2  13.4  15.7  12.7  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  79.0  75.0  70.0  56.0  42.0  30.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  43.0  53.0  40.0  36.0  20.0  21.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  68.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   6.0  11.0  14.0   5.0   7.0  -2.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        3.5%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%        8.4%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%        4.7%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        4.3%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%        4.3%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h       41.8%        4.5%       23.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.48

 WP112024 240827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  32.5  28.6  21.1  24.2  13.4  15.7  12.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  68.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   6.0  11.0  14.0   5.0   7.0  -2.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%