Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  24.8  25.9  26.9  21.0  17.9  13.9  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  75.0  68.0  61.0  47.0  38.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  36.0  26.0  31.0  40.0  27.0  -5.0  23.0  U  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  12.0  12.0   6.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        4.5%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%        8.3%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%        4.8%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%        4.6%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        4.3%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h       43.6%        4.6%       24.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 WP112024 240827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  24.8  25.9  26.9  21.0  17.9  13.9  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  12.0  12.0   6.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%