Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  26.6  26.0  18.6  17.1  11.4  17.0  18.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  51.0  42.0  36.0  24.0  32.0   4.0  35.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  40.0  56.0  52.0  18.0  13.0  28.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  19.0  12.0   4.0   1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  U VU  U  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.8%        1.1%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.24

 WP112024 240828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  26.6  26.0  18.6  17.1  11.4  17.0  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  19.0  12.0   4.0   1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  F VF  F  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%