Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.1  20.4  17.9  21.7  11.9  26.3  19.4  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  31.0  27.0  21.0  36.0  23.0   8.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  41.0  42.0  50.0   4.0   6.0  41.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  14.0   7.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%        0.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP112024 240828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.1  20.4  17.9  21.7  11.9  26.3  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  14.0   7.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%