Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  18.9  20.6  22.2  10.2  17.3  14.8  24.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  44.0  32.0  22.0  26.0  43.0  50.0   9.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  49.0  45.0  30.0  29.0  19.0  13.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        5.1%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.8%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%        2.0%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.6%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP112024 240828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  18.9  20.6  22.2  10.2  17.3  14.8  24.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%