Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.6  11.8  14.1  25.6  22.9  31.1  23.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   0.0  21.0  40.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.5  77.4  77.4  75.5  79.4  81.5  90.1 100.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -4.0  31.0  24.0 -12.0 -52.0   8.0  20.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  46.0  43.0 VU VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0  -8.0  -8.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 WP112024 240829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.6  11.8  14.1  25.6  22.9  31.1  23.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  46.0  43.0 VF VF  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0  -8.0  -8.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%