Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  14.7  29.7  29.2  18.9  26.1  19.2  23.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  27.0  33.0   5.0  10.0   6.0   1.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  25.0  21.0  15.0 -31.0  -1.0   5.0  17.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  44.0  45.0  43.0  45.0  49.0  57.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -10.0   5.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0   7.0  -1.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        0.8%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP112024 240829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  14.7  29.7  29.2  18.9  26.1  19.2  23.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  44.0  45.0  43.0  45.0  49.0  57.0  F  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -10.0   5.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0   7.0  -1.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%