Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240830 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.80 131.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 27.2 23.8 19.0 25.7 20.9 19.2 24.7 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 22.0 33.0 45.0 9.0 4.0 25.0 2.0 U U U N U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 38.0 17.0 -14.0 -45.0 -13.0 -21.0 18.0 U N U U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 45.0 39.0 36.0 38.0 37.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 6.0 -6.0 -7.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 -11.0 F N F F N N U F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 6.8% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.5% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 3.6% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 2.7% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 5.8% 2.7% 4.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 WP112024 240830 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.80 131.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 27.2 23.8 19.0 25.7 20.9 19.2 24.7 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 45.0 39.0 36.0 38.0 37.0 42.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 6.0 -6.0 -7.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 -11.0 U N U U N N F U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%