Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  24.8  18.8  20.3  21.9  19.3  25.4  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  21.0   5.0   8.0  21.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 111.5 111.5 113.6 113.6 103.5  71.7  63.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  17.0 -14.0 -42.0  -9.0  -9.0   5.0  26.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  38.0  41.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -8.0  -8.0   3.0  -4.0   8.0  -2.0 -21.0  N  F  F  N  F  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 WP112024 240830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  24.8  18.8  20.3  21.9  19.3  25.4  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  38.0  41.0  44.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -8.0  -8.0   3.0  -4.0   8.0  -2.0 -21.0  N  U  U  N  U  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%