Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240830 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 132.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 21.7 33.6 30.0 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 N N U N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 38.0 10.0 48.0 44.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U N N U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -30.0 -5.0 -34.0 -39.0 -23.0 -23.0 -23.0 -23.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 40.0 38.0 35.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 6.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.9% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 4.6% 1.8% 3.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.06 WP112024 240830 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 132.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 21.7 33.6 30.0 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 N N F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 40.0 38.0 35.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 6.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%