Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240830 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.80 134.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 28.3 32.6 25.9 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 N N U N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 44.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 -24.0 -45.0 -21.0 -45.0 -45.0 -45.0 -45.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 41.0 37.0 37.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 3.2% 1.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.5% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 WP112024 240830 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.80 134.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 28.3 32.6 25.9 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 N N F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 41.0 37.0 37.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%