Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240831 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.60 135.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 30.9 29.6 26.5 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 N U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -33.0 -64.0 -33.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 39.0 37.0 35.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 4.7% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.7% 3.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 2.8% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 1.7% 3.8% 2.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 WP112024 240831 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.60 135.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 30.9 29.6 26.5 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 39.0 37.0 35.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%