Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240831 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 137.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 26.5 22.6 19.6 25.8 69.6 69.6 69.6 N N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 16.0 12.0 25.0 8.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 130.1 130.1 130.1 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -18.0 -44.0 -56.0 43.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 VU U VU VU N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 33.0 33.0 32.0 40.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -8.0 0.0 -9.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 N N F N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 2.7% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.6% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP112024 240831 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 137.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 26.5 22.6 19.6 25.8 69.6 69.6 69.6 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 33.0 33.0 32.0 40.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -8.0 0.0 -9.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 N N U N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%