Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240831 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 137.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.90 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 32.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 6.3% 3.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 9.1% 4.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 4.2% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 2.0% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 6.0% 6.9% 6.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP112024 240831 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 137.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 32.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%