Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240901 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 136.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 17.6 19.8 21.6 44.2 86.1 96.1 92.2 N F N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 3.0 21.0 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 70.9 31.6 21.7 19.2 F F F F U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -36.0 -16.0 -19.0 29.0 67.0 39.0 5.0 -3.0 VU U U N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 32.0 32.0 37.0 41.0 36.0 34.0 37.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 -18.0 -33.0 -85.0-104.0 N N N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 6.4% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.9% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.0% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 WP112024 240901 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 136.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 17.6 19.8 21.6 44.2 86.1 96.1 92.2 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 32.0 32.0 37.0 41.0 36.0 34.0 37.0 44.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 -18.0 -33.0 -85.0-104.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%