Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240901 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 136.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.9 20.1 21.4 24.2 65.5 96.6 97.4 97.4 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 21.0 23.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 130.1 94.6 41.2 18.7 18.0 18.0 F F F N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 -6.0 20.0 87.0 89.0 7.0 -5.0 -5.0 U U U F F U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 37.0 39.0 40.0 35.0 37.0 53.0 53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 2.0 12.0 0.0 -44.0 -86.0 -89.0 -89.0 N N U N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.8% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 WP112024 240901 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 136.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.9 20.1 21.4 24.2 65.5 96.6 97.4 97.4 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 37.0 39.0 40.0 35.0 37.0 53.0 53.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 2.0 12.0 0.0 -44.0 -86.0 -89.0 -89.0 N N F N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%