Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240901 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 136.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 22.8 28.3 41.3 41.3 41.3 41.3 41.3 N N N VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 42.0 34.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 F F F N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 13.0 71.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 U U N F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 23.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N VU U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 2.3% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 3.6% 0.5% 2.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 WP112024 240901 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 136.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 22.8 28.3 41.3 41.3 41.3 41.3 41.3 N N N VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 23.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N VF F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.0% 0.2%