Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112024 240901 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 136.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.5 36.9 54.0 77.9 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 81.7 60.8 33.7 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 F N U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 88.0 80.0 54.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N F N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 43.0 38.0 37.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 0.0 -45.0 -91.0 -96.0 -96.0 -96.0 -96.0 VU N VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.60 WP112024 240901 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 136.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.