Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  30.5  24.4  21.5  21.7  15.7  20.3  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  85.0 130.0 147.0  93.0  83.0  95.0  87.0  N  N VF VF  F  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  45.0  72.0  79.0  70.0  81.0  57.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  79.0  72.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       40.2%       31.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.2%       19.4%       15.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       17.4%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       17.4%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h       29.1%       61.3%       45.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.5%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       50.3%       42.6%       46.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       42.1%       33.5%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       73.3%       67.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.62

 WP122024 240901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  30.5  24.4  21.5  21.7  15.7  20.3  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  79.0  72.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%