Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  27.2  19.5  14.5  17.3  20.9  19.4  20.1  U  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  59.0 109.0 111.0  85.0  84.0  68.0  55.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  53.0  59.0  56.0  62.0  60.0  73.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        5.2%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       28.4%       50.2%       39.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       30.6%       22.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       29.8%       20.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       28.9%       16.0%
 45kt / 36h       26.0%       63.9%       45.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.1%       21.0%
 55kt / 48h       43.7%       43.9%       43.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.5%       40.0%       32.3%
 65kt / 72h       55.6%       62.4%       59.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.58

 WP122024 240901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  27.2  19.5  14.5  17.3  20.9  19.4  20.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%