Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  18.0  18.3  19.0  16.4  17.4  16.9  24.7  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 103.0  56.0  90.0  85.0  68.0  55.0  46.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  55.0  64.0  57.0  52.0  66.0  59.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  73.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        8.2%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       31.4%       47.8%       39.6%
 30kt / 24h       20.1%       29.7%       24.9%
 35kt / 24h       15.9%       29.7%       22.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.1%       29.7%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       33.5%       54.0%       43.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.9%       15.5%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       39.2%       40.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.1%       27.3%       25.7%
 65kt / 72h       42.3%       44.8%       43.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.44

 WP122024 240902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  18.0  18.3  19.0  16.4  17.4  16.9  24.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  73.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%