Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  18.3  20.1  15.6  16.6  16.4  22.9  21.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  16.0  80.0  89.0  78.0  57.0  51.0  49.0  F  U  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  64.0  57.0  49.0  41.0  63.0  77.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       22.7%       15.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       11.2%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        9.7%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        9.7%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.1%       23.3%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.2%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       33.6%       23.1%       28.3%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%        9.3%       14.4%
 65kt / 72h       54.5%       26.8%       40.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.44

 WP122024 240902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  18.3  20.1  15.6  16.6  16.4  22.9  21.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%