Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.9  19.8  18.7  18.6  16.5  17.4  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  69.0  75.0  78.0  70.0  58.0  51.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  57.0  26.0  17.0  51.0  36.0  66.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  76.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       15.1%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        6.9%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        5.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       15.4%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       23.1%       16.7%       19.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%        6.0%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       42.9%       27.5%       35.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.48

 WP122024 240902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.9  19.8  18.7  18.6  16.5  17.4  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  76.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%