Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  22.0  22.0  24.1  21.6  29.1  20.0  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  81.0  77.0  70.0  57.0  64.0  64.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  70.0  73.0  67.0  81.0  71.0  68.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        7.8%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       28.5%       47.4%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.1%       30.2%       22.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%       30.1%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       28.5%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h       19.7%       48.5%       34.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.3%       13.2%
 55kt / 48h       27.7%       28.9%       28.3%
 70kt / 48h       12.8%       17.9%       15.4%
 65kt / 72h       45.4%       39.2%       42.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.14

 WP122024 240903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  22.0  22.0  24.1  21.6  29.1  20.0  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%