Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  15.8  19.1  16.9  17.5  15.1  14.4  23.2  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  75.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  48.0  39.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  39.0  45.0  64.0  52.0  54.0  50.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  60.7  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   1.3   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        7.7%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       47.6%       35.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.9%       32.4%       22.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       31.1%       21.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       30.0%       15.4%
 45kt / 36h       20.5%       49.5%       35.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.2%       14.1%
 55kt / 48h       37.6%       41.4%       39.5%
 70kt / 48h       20.8%       24.3%       22.5%
 65kt / 72h       48.6%       45.4%       47.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.18

 WP122024 240903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  15.8  19.1  16.9  17.5  15.1  14.4  23.2  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  60.7  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   1.3   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%