Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  17.4  15.1  14.3  21.0  18.3  19.6  23.1  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  74.0  65.0  59.0  55.0  48.0  41.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  57.0  66.0  75.0  59.0  56.0  30.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.7%       23.7%       22.2%
 25kt / 24h       56.5%       72.3%       64.4%
 30kt / 24h       41.6%       63.7%       52.6%
 35kt / 24h       40.9%       63.7%       52.3%
 40kt / 24h       12.5%       62.8%       37.7%
 45kt / 36h       43.4%       68.0%       55.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.7%       25.3%
 55kt / 48h       46.0%       51.8%       48.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       35.5%       30.0%
 65kt / 72h       35.6%       43.0%       39.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.16

 WP122024 240903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  17.4  15.1  14.3  21.0  18.3  19.6  23.1  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%