Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.0  17.7  14.4  19.2  12.5  28.4  27.4  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  61.0  54.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  45.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  91.0  80.0  85.0  87.0  99.0  78.0  81.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.2%       27.5%       27.4%
 25kt / 24h       65.2%       77.8%       71.5%
 30kt / 24h       47.6%       74.2%       60.9%
 35kt / 24h       47.6%       74.2%       60.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.9%       71.3%       45.1%
 45kt / 36h       48.1%       73.2%       60.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       57.7%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       49.8%       62.4%       56.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.1%       43.1%       33.6%
 65kt / 72h       41.2%       44.8%       43.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.06

 WP122024 240903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.0  17.7  14.4  19.2  12.5  28.4  27.4  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%